The growing disconnect between food prices and wages in Europe: cross-national analysis of food deprivation and welfare regimes in 21 EU countries, 2004-2012

Food insecurity has been rising across Europe following the Great Recession, but to varying degrees across countries and over time. The reasons for this increase are not well understood, nor are what factors might protect people’s access to food. Here we test the hypothesis that an emerging gap between food prices and wages can explain increases in reported inability to afford protein-rich foods and whether welfare regimes can mitigate its impact. We collected data on 21 countries from 2004-2012 on food prices and deprivation related to food, denoted by reported in ability to afford to eat meat, chicken, fish or a vegetarian equivalent, every second day, from EuroStat 2015 edition and on wages from the OECD 2015 edition. After adjusting for macroeconomic factors, we found that each 1% rise in the price of food over and above wages was associated with greater selfreported food deprivation (β = 0.063, 95% CI: 0.033 to 0.092); particularly among impoverished groups. But, this association also varied across welfare regimes. In Eastern European welfare regimes, a 1% rise in the price of food over wages was associated with a 0.081 percentage point rise in food deprivation (95% CI: 0.051 to 0.11) while in Social Democratic welfare regimes we find no clear association (p = 0.37). Rising prices of food coupled with stagnating wages are a major factor driving food deprivation, especially in deprived groups; however, our evidence indicates that more generous welfare systems can mitigate this impact. *International Inequalities Institute, London School of Economics, [email protected] †Department of Nutrition and Dietetics, King’s College London ‡Department of Sociology, University of Oxford